Contents : 1. Introduction to economic forecasting : The value of economic forecasts; Pitfalls and pointers; The art of forecasting; Summary; 2. Business cycles : The three D's of business cycle; Are modern business cycles different? Business-cycle theories; Summary; 3. Long waves : Introduction; The Kitchin cycle; The Juglar cycle; The Kuznets cycle; The Kondratieff cycles; A critique of wave theory; Batra's wave theory; Summary; 4. Forecasting with economic indicators : The indicators of the U.S. department of commerce; Statistical indicators and prediction rules; Diffusion indexes; More exotic statistical indicators; Miscellaneous indicators; Summary; 5. Forecasting with time-series techniques : Trend extrapolation; Exponential smoothing; ARIMA models; Trends : stationary, stochastic, and chaotic; Summary; 6. Forecasting with econometric models : Introduction; Regression analysis; Econometric models; A simple econometric model; Large-scale econometric models; Vector autoregressive models; Summary; 7. Consensus forecasts : Introduction; Consensus forecasts; Methods for combining forecasts; The role of judgment and adjustments; Summary; 8. Evaluation of economic forecasts : Forecast accuracy; Other considerations of forecast accuracy; Autocorrelation; Bias; Ranking the forecasting techniques; Future prospects; Summary;.
Bibliography, etc. Note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 187-193) and index.
Formatted Contents Note
Ch. 1. Introduction to Economic Forecasting Ch. 2. Business Cycles Ch. 3. Long Waves Ch. 4. Forecasting with Economic Indicators Ch. 5. Forecasting with Time-Series Techniques Ch. 6. Forecasting with Econometric Models Ch. 7. Consensus Forecasts Ch. 8. Evaluation of Economic Forecasts.