Economic forecasting : the state of the art / Elia Kacapyr.

Economic forecasting : the state of the art / Elia Kacapyr.

xvii, 201 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

1563247658
156324764X hardcover
9781563247644 hardcover
9781563247651 paperback
0585190194 electronic book
9780585190198 electronic book
1315480689 ebk
9781315480688
1315480697
9781315480695 E-Book
9781315480664 E-Book
1315480662
9781315480671 E-Book
1315480670

A 9 KAC.E

Contents : 1. Introduction to economic forecasting : The value of economic forecasts; Pitfalls and pointers; The art of forecasting; Summary; 2. Business cycles : The three D's of business cycle; Are modern business cycles different? Business-cycle theories; Summary; 3. Long waves : Introduction; The Kitchin cycle; The Juglar cycle; The Kuznets cycle; The Kondratieff cycles; A critique of wave theory; Batra's wave theory; Summary; 4. Forecasting with economic indicators : The indicators of the U.S. department of commerce; Statistical indicators and prediction rules; Diffusion indexes; More exotic statistical indicators; Miscellaneous indicators; Summary; 5. Forecasting with time-series techniques : Trend extrapolation; Exponential smoothing; ARIMA models; Trends : stationary, stochastic, and chaotic; Summary; 6. Forecasting with econometric models : Introduction; Regression analysis; Econometric models; A simple econometric model; Large-scale econometric models; Vector autoregressive models; Summary; 7. Consensus forecasts : Introduction; Consensus forecasts; Methods for combining forecasts; The role of judgment and adjustments; Summary; 8. Evaluation of economic forecasts : Forecast accuracy; Other considerations of forecast accuracy; Autocorrelation; Bias; Ranking the forecasting techniques; Future prospects; Summary;.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 187-193) and index.

Armonk, N.Y. : M.E. Sharpe, c1996.

eng