A managerial guide to business forecasting / Dennis Ellis, Jay Nathan.

A managerial guide to business forecasting / Dennis Ellis, Jay Nathan.

xiv, 162 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm

0932126111
9780932126115

A 9 ELL.M

Price : US$ 29.50; Inv.# Supplier : Amazon.Com, Seattle, WA; Recd 24/08/98; Table of Contents : 1. Concepts of time series forecasting : Type of models; Factors governing selection of a technique; Two basic concepts; Plan of the book; Part 1. 2. Simple time series models : The basic model; Basic forecast with seasonal; Levels model; Average absolute change model; Average percentage change model; Weighted average percentage change model; Final comments; 3. Smoothing models : Single moving average; Single exponential smoothing; Poisson smoothing; Final comments; Appendix : Comments on moving average; 4. Decomposition method : Trend value; Seasonal value; Cyclical value; Forecast based on decomposition method; Final comments; 5. Linear trend models : Linear trends; Linear moving average; Double exponential smoothing; Holt's two parameter linear exponential smoothing; Final comments; 6. Nonlinear trends : Curve fitting; Forecast example; Tripe exponential smoothing; Final comments; 7. Winters' three parameter exponential smoothing : Winters' three parameter linear exponential smoothing model; Basic step in winters' three parameter model; Forecast with winters' three parameter model; Final comments; Part 3. 8. Box-jenkins approach : Types of models; Identification; Estimation; Diagnostic checking; Preparing forecasts; Final comments; 9. Forecast accuracy : Forecast accuracy measures; Combining forecasts; Final comments; 10. Beyond the forecast models : Factors governing selection of a technique; Start up procedure for implementing a company forecast; Questions a manager should ask a forecaster; Package and present forecasts;.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Flushing, NY : Graceway Pub., c1990.

eng